Insights from RGS, your Prof. Realtor

Philippine Real Estate Market Update – September 26, 2026
Executive view
The clearest new market signal is that residential price growth has nearly stalled nationally ( I’ve mentioned that market is back to 2016-2017 levels ), with weakness primarily in Metro Manila. At the same time, industrial prospects improved through the preliminary EU–Philippines trade agreement but limited power capacity may determine which estates actually capture new locators. Foreign capital remains interested in major Philippine platforms, while proposed infrastructure financing still needs to become specific, funded projects.
1. Residential price growth falls to its slowest recorded pace
Confirmed : BSP data released on September 25 showed Philippine residential prices registering their slowest growth on record in Q2 2026 ( transactions are slow due to global issues and of course, low confidence in governance, what’s new ? ), amid declining prices outside the National Capital Region. This follows the stronger 4.5% annual increase recorded during Q1.
Why it matters : This official transaction-based evidence supports what brokers are already seeing, asking prices may remain high, but actual financed transactions are no longer producing broad appreciation.
Brokerage implications :
• Provincial sellers should not assume that infrastructure announcements or developer launch prices have raised the value of every nearby property.
• Metro Manila’s relative resilience does not erase condominium oversupply; location, building quality and unit condition still matter.
• Sellers with aging listings should review actual closed transactions, viewing feedback and developer incentives.
• Buyers should negotiate price, payment terms, taxes, parking, furnishings and repairs, not just request a headline discount.
• Properties with clean documents and realistic sellers should capture a larger share of limited deal activity.
Seller line : “The market is not saying your property has no value, it is saying the price must be supported by today’s transactions.” It’s good that quite a number of Sellers are finally realizing this. Sentiment more often than not takes at least two years to be realized !
2. EU–Philippines trade agreement could strengthen industrial demand
Confirmed : The Philippines and European Union reached a substantial political agreement on a free-trade deal. Once finalized and implemented, it is expected to remove more than 94% of tariffs on both sides. Current bilateral trade amounts to approximately €17.6 billion in goods and €10.3 billion in services. The legal text and final signing are still pending.
Analysis : This could eventually support European manufacturing, assembly, agribusiness, cold-chain and distribution investment. It does not yet represent an operating locator or immediate land requirement.
Industrial opportunities to monitor:
• CALABARZON and Central Luzon industrial estates
• Food-processing and cold-storage facilities
• Warehouses serving imported machinery and European consumer products
• Supplier facilities near electronics and advanced-manufacturing clusters
• Sites with reliable ports, airports and expressway access
Negotiation discipline : Landowners should wait for actual corporate mandates, capital expenditure and location searches before adding an “FTA premium” to asking prices.
3. Power capacity becomes a decisive industrial-site test
Confirmed: Savills warned that Philippine industrial locations with insufficient grid capacity risk losing manufacturing and data-center projects, even where land and transport access are suitable.
Brokerage analysis : Power availability is moving from a technical due diligence item to a principal valuation factor. This is particularly important for semiconductor plants, cold storage, data centers and automated warehouses.

For every serious industrial listing, brokers should obtain:
• Confirmed available power allocation, not merely the nearby substation’s name
• Estimated energization timetable
• Backup-power and renewable-energy options
• Water capacity and wastewater arrangements
• Truck circulation, floor loading and fire-protection specifications
• PEZA or BOI eligibility
A cheaper property with an uncertain power connection may ultimately be the more expensive option.
4. Mitsubishi makes a major long-term commitment to Ayala
Confirmed: Mitsubishi Corporation will invest ₱44.5 billion to raise its stake in Ayala Corporation from 4.7% to 15%. The transaction values Ayala shares at approximately a 22% premium to their previous closing price. The companies intend to explore further opportunities in Ayala’s real-estate, energy and consumer businesses. Completion is expected within Mitsubishi’s 2026 fiscal year.
Commercial-property implications :
• This is a meaningful vote of confidence in a major Philippine developer and infrastructure platform.
• The partnership may eventually support township, utility, renewable-energy and industrial initiatives.
• It does not automatically improve the pricing of every Ayala residential or commercial property.
• Brokers should distinguish corporate-level investment confidence from building-level fundamentals such as vacancy, rent and resale liquidity.
Investor line : “Foreign capital is still willing to pay for credible Philippine platforms, but it is selecting established operators, not buying the entire market indiscriminately.”
5. UK opens a large infrastructure-financing window
Confirmed: UK Export Finance established a framework offering up to £5 billion—approximately ₱420 billion of potential financing for priority Philippine infrastructure projects. This is a financing capacity, not a ₱420-billion project award or immediate government expenditure.
Likely effect :
The framework could help finance transport, energy, water and other major projects that use qualifying British goods or services. Its property impact will depend on which projects secure approval and proceed to procurement and construction.
For corridor listings : Do not advertise the national financing ceiling as though it were already allocated locally. Identify the specific project, approved budget, right-of-way status, procurement stage and completion timetable.
6. Finance and policy watch
Interest rates: The BSP policy rate remains at 5%. Combined with weak residential-price momentum, this keeps financed buyers cautious and strengthens the value of updated loan approval, larger equity and flexible closing terms.
RPVARA: No enactment of the proposed two-year valuation freeze was verified this week. Current BIR and LGU values should therefore continue to govern transaction estimates.
99-year foreign-investor leases: Republic Act No. 12252 is already operational. Qualified foreign investors may lease private land for up to 99 years for approved and registered investments, but the law does not permit foreign ownership of land. This is especially relevant to factories, industrial estates, tourism facilities and other projects req